Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.668336 24.658007 26.806503 29.309957 32.160870 35.323042 39.118931
2025-12-07 19.372587 22.073651 25.195229 29.112975 33.961460 39.851278 47.685358
2025-12-14 17.074590 20.124777 23.832249 28.760068 35.281278 43.835625 56.306281
2025-12-21 15.999966 19.419810 23.765494 29.850879 38.429057 50.564740 70.021043
2025-12-28 14.704222 18.238293 22.881003 29.648205 39.677359 54.776437 81.060220
2026-01-04 13.721063 17.338480 22.229744 29.617011 41.075298 59.364818 93.887124
2026-01-11 13.027559 16.747092 21.913322 29.983499 43.068242 65.217382 110.740189
2026-01-18 12.292717 16.023983 21.321626 29.832707 44.162786 69.702068 126.455424
2026-01-25 11.626034 15.339128 20.713165 29.564697 44.985188 73.814654 142.913855
2026-02-01 11.089926 14.800006 20.268778 29.495576 46.118191 78.732093 163.381032
2026-02-08 10.573700 14.251918 19.761083 29.256017 46.886320 83.053736 184.409547
2026-02-15 10.092546 13.724022 19.241445 28.935364 47.441353 87.028476 206.619829
2026-02-22 9.647191 13.231694 18.754431 28.644160 48.057067 91.408832 233.343544
2026-03-01 9.267025 12.818521 18.366779 28.493498 48.942597 96.698981 267.376022
2026-03-08 8.884770 12.380292 17.907311 28.165612 49.409594 101.087876 301.894284
2026-03-15 8.788025 12.385778 18.182463 29.229679 53.054279 115.056531 394.203129
2026-03-22 8.478102 12.031027 17.820901 29.034996 53.837308 121.235670 456.882870
2026-03-29 8.218725 11.744531 17.557382 29.005451 55.002511 128.997281 542.216627
2026-04-05 8.038615 11.578084 17.491037 29.361430 57.159503 140.791975 681.833895
2026-04-12 7.793786 11.291807 17.193736 29.215177 58.040473 148.642916 812.724139
2026-04-19 7.548215 10.993036 16.856454 28.955072 58.591359 155.583761 959.697056
2026-04-26 7.345404 10.757437 16.620108 28.887987 59.650216 164.992942 1178.108684
2026-05-03 7.131984 10.494602 16.319183 28.655432 60.226189 172.792400 1421.785961